Biofuels & Sustainable Fuels
Enabling the transition to low-carbon mobility through sustainable fuels, advanced feedstocks, policy intelligence, and transport decarbonisation pathways.
Some sectors simply cannot plug in
Transport accounts for 20-25% of global CO₂ emissions - yet aviation and shipping cannot electrify at the scale their missions demand. For these hard-to-abate sectors, biofuels and sustainable fuels are not one option among many. They are the only viable near-term pathway.
A wave of binding policy - RefuelEU, RED III, CORSIA, FuelEU Maritime, the US Inflation Reduction Act - has converted aspiration into mandated demand floors. Over $15bn of new biofuel capacity was announced in 2022-24. Producers, airlines, and refiners moving now are locking in feedstock, offtake agreements, and infrastructure ahead of a structural shortage.
From first generation to synthetic fuels
Biofuels are best understood as a generational pyramid - each tier trading scale and maturity against sustainability and lifecycle carbon savings. First-generation fuels dominate volume today, but policy and markets are driving an accelerating shift to second and third-generation pathways with superior carbon credentials.
The aviation decarbonisation backbone
SAF demand is projected to grow from roughly 0.6 Mt in 2023 to over 260 Mt by 2050 under net-zero scenarios. HEFA dominates near-term supply; e-SAF is expected to take over post-2040 as electrolyser and renewable-power costs fall. Four competing production pathways are scaling in parallel.
Four production pathways competing for scale
Each pathway offers a different balance of carbon savings, feedstock flexibility, cost, and technology readiness. Near-term supply is dominated by HEFA - but the net-zero trajectory demands e-SAF at scale post-2040.
SAF blending mandates by region
RefuelEU mandates 6% SAF by 2030 and 70% by 2050. e-SAF is expected to cross Jet A-1 cost parity by approximately 2038 as green-H₂ falls below $1.5/kg.
Decarbonising the hardest transport modes
Shipping accounts for approximately 2.5% of global GHG emissions and faces the IMO 2050 net-zero commitment. FuelEU Maritime sets a binding GHG-intensity reduction path of 80% by 2050. Biogenic and synthetic fuels are the primary solutions - and Maersk, CMA CGM, and MSC are already placing major bets.
Supply will decide the winners
Biofuel economics are dominated by feedstock cost - and the race for premium-certified feedstocks is already driving structural shortages. Used cooking oil, the most coveted feedstock in the EU, commands a price premium over $1,400 per tonne. The EU SAF mandate alone could require 8-12 Mt of UCO and waste fats by 2030 against roughly 10-15 Mt of global supply.
Double-counted under RED II. Highest premium feedstock. Supply is inelastic - risk of structural shortage.
Available supply: ~5 Mt/yr globally
Large US and Australian supply. ISCC-certified. Key HEFA co-feedstock alongside UCO.
Available supply: Growing fast
Wheat straw, corn stover, bagasse. Qualifies for RED II advanced double-counting.
Available supply: Abundant
The future feedstock. Gasification and pyrolysis costs are falling. Strong regulatory support.
Available supply: Very large
Structural shortage ahead:the EU SAF mandate alone needs 8-12 Mt of UCO and waste fats by 2030 against an estimated 10-15 Mt of global supply - and an estimated 20-30% of EU “UCO” imports may be fraudulent. Feedstock provenance and certification will become a defining competitive factor.
Research built for sustainable fuels decisions
ESIQ provides bespoke intelligence, market mapping, and voice-of-customer research for organisations navigating the sustainable fuels transition - whether as producers, investors, airlines, shipping companies, or technology providers.
Sustainable Fuels Market Mapping
Tracking SAF producers, HVO capacity, marine fuel projects, and advanced biofuel facilities - by technology, region, and commercial readiness - to clarify where markets are moving.
Policy & Regulatory Intelligence
Monitoring RefuelEU, RED III, CORSIA, FuelEU Maritime, IRA SAF credits, and national blending mandates to help clients stay ahead of policy-driven demand shifts.
Feedstock & Supply Chain Analysis
Assessing UCO availability, advanced-feedstock supply risks, pricing trajectories, and certification requirements - the inputs that determine commercial viability.
Technology Readiness Assessment
Evaluating HEFA, ATJ, FT, e-SAF, and marine fuel technologies against cost, TRL, scalability, and carbon-certification criteria - supporting investment and partnership decisions.
Strategic Opportunity Analysis
Identifying market entry points, competitive positioning, offtake dynamics, and partnership opportunities across the sustainable fuels value chain - from feedstock to final fuel.
Need clarity on a sustainable fuels challenge?
Start a conversation with ESIQ about your research needs - from SAF market intelligence to feedstock strategy and regulatory mapping.
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